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Child-Maltreatment-Research-L (CMRL) List Serve

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Welcome to the database of past Child-Maltreatment-Research-L (CMRL) list serve messages (10,000+). The table below contains all past CMRL messages (text only, no attachments) from Nov. 20, 1996 - September 14, 2018 and is updated quarterly.

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Message ID: 8752
Date: 2010-12-17

Author:Brett Drake

Subject:CM stats in decline - compared to what?

In the spirit of some very good prior work (Finkelhor & Jones (2006) Journal of Social Issues, Vol. 62, No. 4, 2006, pp. 685--716), it can be plainly seen that the CA/N drop is not happening in isolation, implying a real drop (Source: http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm). Total Violent Property Murder Rape Robbery assault Burglary Theft Theft 1960 1,887.2 160.9 1,726.3 5.1 9.6 60.1 86.1 508.6 1,034.7 183.0 1961 1,906.1 158.1 1,747.9 4.8 9.4 58.3 85.7 518.9 1,045.4 183.6 1962 2,019.8 162.3 1,857.5 4.6 9.4 59.7 88.6 535.2 1,124.8 197.4 1963 2,180.3 168.2 2,012.1 4.6 9.4 61.8 92.4 576.4 1,219.1 216.6 1964 2,388.1 190.6 2,197.5 4.9 11.2 68.2 106.2 634.7 1,315.5 247.4 1965 2,449.0 200.2 2,248.8 5.1 12.1 71.7 111.3 662.7 1329 256.8 1966 2,670.8 220.0 2,450.9 5.6 13.2 80.8 120.3 721.0 1,442.9 286.9 1967 2,989.7 253.2 2,736.5 6.2 14.0 102.8 130.2 826.6 1,575.8 334.1 1968 3,370.2 298.4 3,071.8 6.9 15.9 131.8 143.8 932.3 1,746.6 393.0 1969 3,680.0 328.7 3,351.3 7.3 18.5 148.4 154.5 984.1 1,930.9 436.2 1970 3,984.5 363.5 3,621.0 7.9 18.7 172.1 164.8 1,084.9 2,079.3 456.8 1971 4,164.7 396.0 3,768.8 8.6 20.5 188.0 178.8 1,163.5 2,145.5 459.8 1972 3,961.4 401.0 3,560.4 9.0 22.5 180.7 188.8 1,140.8 1,993.6 426.1 1973 4,154.4 417.4 3,737.0 9.4 24.5 183.1 201 1,222.5 2,071.9 442.6 1974 4,850.4 461.1 4,389.3 9.8 26.2 209.3 215.8 1,437.7 2,489.5 462.2 1975 5,298.5 487.8 4,810.7 9.6 26.3 220.8 231.1 1,532.1 2,804.8 473.7 1976 5,287.3 467.8 4,819.5 8.7 26.6 199.3 233.2 1,448.2 2,921.3 450.0 1977 5,077.6 475.9 4,601.7 8.8 29.4 190.7 247.0 1,419.8 2,729.9 452 1978 5,140.4 497.8 4,642.5 9.0 31.0 195.8 262.1 1,434.6 2,747.4 460.5 1979 5,565.5 548.9 5,016.6 9.8 34.7 218.4 286.0 1,511.9 2,999.1 505.6 1980 5,950.0 596.6 5,353.3 10.2 36.8 251.1 298.5 1,684.1 3,167.0 502.2 1981 5,858.2 594.3 5,263.8 9.8 36.0 258.7 289.7 1,649.5 3,139.7 474.7 1982 5,603.7 571.1 5,032.5 9.1 34.0 238.9 289.1 1,488.8 3,084.9 458.9 1983 5,175.0 537.7 4,637.3 8.3 33.7 216.5 279.2 1,337.7 2,869.0 430.8 1984 5,031.3 539.2 4,492.1 7.9 35.7 205.4 290.2 1,263.7 2,791.3 437.1 1985 5,207.1 556.6 4,650.5 8.0 37.1 208.5 302.9 1,287.3 2,901.2 462.0 1986 5,480.4 620.1 4,881.8 8.6 38.1 226.0 347.4 1,349.8 3,022.1 509.8 1987 5,550.0 609.7 4,940.3 8.3 37.4 212.7 351.3 1330 3,081.3 529.5 1988 5,664.2 637.2 5,027.1 8.4 37.6 220.9 370.2 1,309.2 3,134.9 582.9 1989 5,741.0 663.1 5,077.9 8.7 38.1 233.0 383.4 1,276.3 3,171.3 630.4 1990 5,820.3 731.8 5,088.5 9.4 41.2 257.0 424.1 1,235.9 3,194.8 657.8 1991 5,897.8 758.1 5,139.7 9.8 42.3 272.7 433.3 1,252.0 3,228.8 658.9 1992 5,660.2 757.5 4,902.7 9.3 42.8 263.6 441.8 1,168.2 3,103.0 631.5 1993 5,484.4 746.8 4,737.7 9.5 41.1 255.9 440.3 1,099.2 3,032.4 606.1 1994 5,373.5 713.6 4,660.0 9.0 39.3 237.7 427.6 1,042.0 3,026.7 591.3 1995 5,274.9 684.5 4,591.3 8.2 37.1 220.9 418.3 987.1 3,043.8 560.4 1996 5,087.6 636.6 4,451.0 7.4 36.3 201.9 390.9 945.0 2,980.3 525.7 1997 4,927.3 611.0 4,316.3 6.8 35.9 186.1 382.1 919.6 2,891.8 505.7 1998 4,615.5 566.4 4,049.1 6.3 34.4 165.2 360.5 862.0 2,728.1 459.0 1999 4,266.5 523 3,743.6 5.7 32.8 150.1 334.3 770 2,550.7 422.5 2000 4125 506.5 3,618.3 5.5 32 145 324.0 728.8 2477 412.2 2001 4163 505 3,658.1 5.6 31.8 148.5 318.6 741.8 2,485.7 430.5 2002 4125 494 3,630.6 5.6 33.1 146.1 309.5 747.0 2,450.7 432.9 2003 4067 475.8 3591 5.7 32 142.5 295.4 741.0 2417 433.7 2004 3977 463.2 3,514.1 5.5 32.4 136.7 288.6 730.3 2,362.3 421.5 2005 3901 469.0 3,431.5 5.6 31.8 140.8 290.8 726.9 2,287.8 417 2006 3808 473.6 3,334.5 5.7 31 149.4 287.5 729.4 2,206.8 398 2007 3730 466.9 3,263.5 5.6 30 147.6 283.8 722.5 2,177.8 363 2008 3669 457.5 3,211.5 5.4 30 145.7 276.7 732.1 2,167.0 315 2009 3466 429.4 3,036.1 5.0 29 133.0 262.8 716.3 2,060.9 259

In the spirit of some very good prior work (Finkelhor & Jones (2006) Journal of Social Issues, Vol. 62, No. 4, 2006, pp. 685--716), it can be plainly seen that the CA/N drop is not happening in isolation, implying a real drop (Source: http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm). Total Violent Property Murder Rape Robbery assault Burglary Theft Theft 1960 1,887.2 160.9 1,726.3 5.1 9.6 60.1 86.1 508.6 1,034.7 183.0 1961 1,906.1 158.1 1,747.9 4.8 9.4 58.3 85.7 518.9 1,045.4 183.6 1962 2,019.8 162.3 1,857.5 4.6 9.4 59.7 88.6 535.2 1,124.8 197.4 1963 2,180.3 168.2 2,012.1 4.6 9.4 61.8 92.4 576.4 1,219.1 216.6 1964 2,388.1 190.6 2,197.5 4.9 11.2 68.2 106.2 634.7 1,315.5 247.4 1965 2,449.0 200.2 2,248.8 5.1 12.1 71.7 111.3 662.7 1329 256.8 1966 2,670.8 220.0 2,450.9 5.6 13.2 80.8 120.3 721.0 1,442.9 286.9 1967 2,989.7 253.2 2,736.5 6.2 14.0 102.8 130.2 826.6 1,575.8 334.1 1968 3,370.2 298.4 3,071.8 6.9 15.9 131.8 143.8 932.3 1,746.6 393.0 1969 3,680.0 328.7 3,351.3 7.3 18.5 148.4 154.5 984.1 1,930.9 436.2 1970 3,984.5 363.5 3,621.0 7.9 18.7 172.1 164.8 1,084.9 2,079.3 456.8 1971 4,164.7 396.0 3,768.8 8.6 20.5 188.0 178.8 1,163.5 2,145.5 459.8 1972 3,961.4 401.0 3,560.4 9.0 22.5 180.7 188.8 1,140.8 1,993.6 426.1 1973 4,154.4 417.4 3,737.0 9.4 24.5 183.1 201 1,222.5 2,071.9 442.6 1974 4,850.4 461.1 4,389.3 9.8 26.2 209.3 215.8 1,437.7 2,489.5 462.2 1975 5,298.5 487.8 4,810.7 9.6 26.3 220.8 231.1 1,532.1 2,804.8 473.7 1976 5,287.3 467.8 4,819.5 8.7 26.6 199.3 233.2 1,448.2 2,921.3 450.0 1977 5,077.6 475.9 4,601.7 8.8 29.4 190.7 247.0 1,419.8 2,729.9 452 1978 5,140.4 497.8 4,642.5 9.0 31.0 195.8 262.1 1,434.6 2,747.4 460.5 1979 5,565.5 548.9 5,016.6 9.8 34.7 218.4 286.0 1,511.9 2,999.1 505.6 1980 5,950.0 596.6 5,353.3 10.2 36.8 251.1 298.5 1,684.1 3,167.0 502.2 1981 5,858.2 594.3 5,263.8 9.8 36.0 258.7 289.7 1,649.5 3,139.7 474.7 1982 5,603.7 571.1 5,032.5 9.1 34.0 238.9 289.1 1,488.8 3,084.9 458.9 1983 5,175.0 537.7 4,637.3 8.3 33.7 216.5 279.2 1,337.7 2,869.0 430.8 1984 5,031.3 539.2 4,492.1 7.9 35.7 205.4 290.2 1,263.7 2,791.3 437.1 1985 5,207.1 556.6 4,650.5 8.0 37.1 208.5 302.9 1,287.3 2,901.2 462.0 1986 5,480.4 620.1 4,881.8 8.6 38.1 226.0 347.4 1,349.8 3,022.1 509.8 1987 5,550.0 609.7 4,940.3 8.3 37.4 212.7 351.3 1330 3,081.3 529.5 1988 5,664.2 637.2 5,027.1 8.4 37.6 220.9 370.2 1,309.2 3,134.9 582.9 1989 5,741.0 663.1 5,077.9 8.7 38.1 233.0 383.4 1,276.3 3,171.3 630.4 1990 5,820.3 731.8 5,088.5 9.4 41.2 257.0 424.1 1,235.9 3,194.8 657.8 1991 5,897.8 758.1 5,139.7 9.8 42.3 272.7 433.3 1,252.0 3,228.8 658.9 1992 5,660.2 757.5 4,902.7 9.3 42.8 263.6 441.8 1,168.2 3,103.0 631.5 1993 5,484.4 746.8 4,737.7 9.5 41.1 255.9 440.3 1,099.2 3,032.4 606.1 1994 5,373.5 713.6 4,660.0 9.0 39.3 237.7 427.6 1,042.0 3,026.7 591.3 1995 5,274.9 684.5 4,591.3 8.2 37.1 220.9 418.3 987.1 3,043.8 560.4 1996 5,087.6 636.6 4,451.0 7.4 36.3 201.9 390.9 945.0 2,980.3 525.7 1997 4,927.3 611.0 4,316.3 6.8 35.9 186.1 382.1 919.6 2,891.8 505.7 1998 4,615.5 566.4 4,049.1 6.3 34.4 165.2 360.5 862.0 2,728.1 459.0 1999 4,266.5 523 3,743.6 5.7 32.8 150.1 334.3 770 2,550.7 422.5 2000 4125 506.5 3,618.3 5.5 32 145 324.0 728.8 2477 412.2 2001 4163 505 3,658.1 5.6 31.8 148.5 318.6 741.8 2,485.7 430.5 2002 4125 494 3,630.6 5.6 33.1 146.1 309.5 747.0 2,450.7 432.9 2003 4067 475.8 3591 5.7 32 142.5 295.4 741.0 2417 433.7 2004 3977 463.2 3,514.1 5.5 32.4 136.7 288.6 730.3 2,362.3 421.5 2005 3901 469.0 3,431.5 5.6 31.8 140.8 290.8 726.9 2,287.8 417 2006 3808 473.6 3,334.5 5.7 31 149.4 287.5 729.4 2,206.8 398 2007 3730 466.9 3,263.5 5.6 30 147.6 283.8 722.5 2,177.8 363 2008 3669 457.5 3,211.5 5.4 30 145.7 276.7 732.1 2,167.0 315 2009 3466 429.4 3,036.1 5.0 29 133.0 262.8 716.3 2,060.9 259