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Child-Maltreatment-Research-L (CMRL) List Serve

Database of Past CMRL Messages

Welcome to the database of past Child-Maltreatment-Research-L (CMRL) list serve messages. The table below contains all past CMRL messages (text only, no attachments) from Nov. 20, 1996 - March 6, 2018 and is updated quarterly.

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Message ID: 8535
Date: 2010-08-27

Author:Adam Zolotor

Subject:Re: New bulletin: Updated Trends in Child Maltreatment, 2008

I would like to offer that the data might just be right. I know this is not necessarily c/w what we are seeing now, but 2008 may be very different from 2009. We have been skeptical (in a healthy way) regarding NCANDS data for some time, but we should consider the relative added information from NIS 4 and survery research (usiing JVQ, PCCTS, and others). Playing amateur economist, I found the following graph: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Unemployment-Rate.aspx?Symbol=USD I believe, as David stated in his email, the 'official' beginning of the recession was 12/2007. However, I suspect unemployment may be a more sensitive indicator of family stress. Unemployment did not start to heat up intil late 2008, early 2009 with a plateau in mid 2009. So I think we will have to wait for 2009 data to understand the effect of the economy on children in this recession. Adam Zolotor Kristen Shook Slack wrote: > What is so interesting to me is that even the numbers/rates of > /reports/ to CPS hotlines has been declining (in many, but not all > locales), despite the bad economy. I would expect fewer screened in > reports and substantiated reports because as already noted, those are > gatekeeping decisions, and with state/county budgets in crisis, there > may be fewer resources to deal with even steady demand on systems. > However, I would have expected that people would still make calls to > CPS when they expect maltreatment is occurring. Others have > hypothesized that there may be fewer mandated (social service) > reporters with all the hiring freezes, layoffs, etc. It could also be > that there is a greater reluctance, on the part of potential > reporters, to make calls that involve situations where the > neglect/poverty line is blurry (e.g., with more people struggling with > unemployment, housing loss, etc., there may be a greater tendency to > empathize with another family's situation). > There may be a more mechanical explanation, though--one that I thought > had been raised on this listserv by others. Are states that have > differential/alternative response in place counting their lower risk, > voluntary "tracks" as protective services reports or are these reports > getting subtracted from the denominator in their report rate and > victimization rate calculations? If the latter is true, with more and > more states and localities adopting such reforms, we might expect to > see these declines in recent years. > -Kristi > >

I would like to offer that the data might just be right. I know this is not necessarily c/w what we are seeing now, but 2008 may be very different from 2009. We have been skeptical (in a healthy way) regarding NCANDS data for some time, but we should consider the relative added information from NIS 4 and survery research (usiing JVQ, PCCTS, and others). Playing amateur economist, I found the following graph: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Unemployment-Rate.aspx?Symbol=USD I believe, as David stated in his email, the 'official' beginning of the recession was 12/2007. However, I suspect unemployment may be a more sensitive indicator of family stress. Unemployment did not start to heat up intil late 2008, early 2009 with a plateau in mid 2009. So I think we will have to wait for 2009 data to understand the effect of the economy on children in this recession. Adam Zolotor Kristen Shook Slack wrote: > What is so interesting to me is that even the numbers/rates of > /reports/ to CPS hotlines has been declining (in many, but not all > locales), despite the bad economy. I would expect fewer screened in > reports and substantiated reports because as already noted, those are > gatekeeping decisions, and with state/county budgets in crisis, there > may be fewer resources to deal with even steady demand on systems. > However, I would have expected that people would still make calls to > CPS when they expect maltreatment is occurring. Others have > hypothesized that there may be fewer mandated (social service) > reporters with all the hiring freezes, layoffs, etc. It could also be > that there is a greater reluctance, on the part of potential > reporters, to make calls that involve situations where the > neglect/poverty line is blurry (e.g., with more people struggling with > unemployment, housing loss, etc., there may be a greater tendency to > empathize with another family's situation). > There may be a more mechanical explanation, though--one that I thought > had been raised on this listserv by others. Are states that have > differential/alternative response in place counting their lower risk, > voluntary "tracks" as protective services reports or are these reports > getting subtracted from the denominator in their report rate and > victimization rate calculations? If the latter is true, with more and > more states and localities adopting such reforms, we might expect to > see these declines in recent years. > -Kristi > >