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Thank you so much for your concise critique of the very base of so much of >the research that has been discussed in this group. As a public >health/violence prevention person I thought it was just my lack of exposure >to psychological circles that has left me feeling cold regarding the >predictive mentality. It really is dangerous. > >For example, the judge who awarded the child to her father because the >mother "was abused as a child", despite no abusive history with the child >whatsoever. Erroneous information about 'cycle of violence' abounds, >exactly >from this chimera of prediction. > >The real unknowns about resiliency, protective factors and the complexity >of >timing for development, teachable moments and response to crises that make >people learn how to turn away from abuse remain completely unaddressed as >we >focus on services for a few rather than community at large. > >Thanks for the opportunity to vent in the same path as your comments! >Sharry > >Sharry Erzinger, Dr.P.H. >sharon.erzinger@xxxxxxxxx >phone/fx 303-988-3270 > Sharry Erzinger, Dr.P.H. sharon.erzinger@xxxxxxxxx phone/fx 303-988-3270 -----Original Message----- From: owner-CHILD-MALTREATMENT-RESEARCH-L@xxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-CHILD-MALTREATMENT-RESEARCH-L@xxxxxxxxxxx]On Behalf Of Thomas R. Chibucos Sent: Wednesday, May 19, 1999 2:45 PM To: Child Maltreatment Researchers Subject: Re: your thoughts? With all due respect those who have put forth Herculean efforts trying to develop predictive instruments, I would try to convince the student that more is to be gained by focusing on broad-based prevention. Data on predictive instruments are uniformly disappointing. In the view of many (I share the view) such instruments are worse than non-effective. They distract highly talented researchers and clinicians from more productive forms of engagement with the problems of child maltreatment. In addition to the wasted research and clinical effort, there are very nasty implications of such distractions for policy as well. Of course, I realize there are other benefits derived from trying to develop predictive instruments (e.g., perhaps better understanding of a phenomenon), but the opportunity costs seem to far outweigh those. We do a lot of this kind of thing actually--e.g., focus on strangers in raincoats when over 80% (or is it 90%, I forget?) of abuse and virtually all child disappearances are committed by parents or other relatives. I appreciate the motive, I really do. But, the dollar and human capital constraints associated with doing research make it clear that there are many more productive avenues to pursue that of seer. At 10:32 AM 5/17/99 -0400, you wrote: > > > >There is an assessment tool that has been developed to assess the risk for >physical child abuse >which may provide some help as a model. Unfortunately I do not have the >reference. I know that it >was developed by a psychology professor at Northern Illinois University. > >Ana M. Sierra, Ph.D. > >--- "Debra L. Sobey" <dsobey@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote: >> -----Original Message----- >> From: R. Dwight Noble <rdnoble@xxxxxxxxxxx> >> To: Child Maltreatment Researchers >> <CHILD-MALTREATMENT-RESEARCH-L@xxxxxxxxxxx> >> Date: Friday, May 07, 1999 11:36 AM >> Subject: Re: degree of trauma and pedophile >> >> >> >Hello group, >> > >> >Need some help for a student of mine. He's constructing a instrument >that >> >might assess the risk for perpetrators of sexual abuse. >> > >> >A basic assumption he has made is that as the degree of truama increases >> >during childhood the propensity to become a perpetrator increases >> >(contributory impact). Makes sense on some level, but I'm not convinced >> >that there is research to back up this assumption. >> > >> >Help. If any of you can point us towards such research, that would be >> >greatly appreciated. >> > >> > >> > >> >Dwight Noble, Ed.D., LMFT >> >Indiana University >> >Department of Criminal Justice >> >Bloomington, Indiana >> >> ><HR> ><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN"> ><HTML> ><HEAD> > ><META content=text/html;charset=iso-8859-1 http-equiv=Content-Type> ><META content='"MSHTML 4.72.3110.7"' name=GENERATOR> ></HEAD> ><BODY bgColor=#ffffff> ><DIV>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: R. Dwight Noble <<A >href="mailto:rdnoble@xxxxxxxxxxx";>rdnoble@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>To: Child >Maltreatment Researchers<BR><<A >href="mailto:CHILD-MALTREATMENT-RESEARCH-L@xxxxxxxxxxx";>CHILD-MALTREATMENT- RESEARCH-L@xxxxxxxxxxx</A>><BR>Date: > >Friday, May 07, 1999 11:36 AM<BR>Subject: Re: degree of trauma and >pedophile<BR><BR><BR>>Hello group,<BR>><BR>>Need some help for a >student of mine. He's constructing a instrument that<BR>>might >assess >the risk for perpetrators of sexual abuse.<BR>><BR>>A basic >assumption he >has made is that as the degree of truama increases<BR>>during childhood >the >propensity to become a perpetrator increases<BR>>(contributory >impact). >Makes sense on some level, but I'm not convinced<BR>>that there is >research >to back up this assumption.<BR>><BR>>Help. If any of you can >point >us towards such research, that would be<BR>>greatly >appreciated.<BR>><BR>><BR>><BR>>Dwight Noble, Ed.D., >LMFT<BR>>Indiana University<BR>>Department of Criminal >Justice<BR>>Bloomington, Indiana<BR></DIV></BODY></HTML> > > >_____________________________________________________________ >Do You Yahoo!? >Free instant messaging and more at http://messenger.yahoo.com > ****************************************************** Views expressed are mine alone, unless otherwise noted. ****************************************************** Thomas R. Chibucos, Ph.D. Professor, Human Development and Family Studies Chair, School of Family and Consumer Sciences 217 Johnston Hall Bowling Green State University Bowling Green, OH 43403-0254 Phone: (419) 372-7823 FAX: (419) 372-7854
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