Re: Your Thoughts

["William F. Northey, Jr., Ph.D." <northey@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Ken,

Keep in mind that all of the instruments being developed, with the possible
exception of a newer version of the Abel Screen, are used to predict
recidivism.  There is absolutely nothing available to predict sexual abuse
without a history of having already committed one sexual offense.  Further,
virtually all of the predictor variables are static (e.g., age at first
offense, types of victims).  This means that the relative risk, based on
these assessment devices, rarely changes even if the person has not
committed an offense for years or decades. The only dynamic variables which
_might_ have an impact (albeit a rather small one) would be getting married
and reduction in sexual interest in boys.

I would point out that these measures are significantly better then
"clinical judgments" or "clinical impressions."  It is becoming more clear
that many of the clinical factors valued by clinicians (e.g., victim
empathy, offense disclosure, congeniality and cooperation, completion of
assigned tasks) have very little predictive validity of future sexual
offending behavior.  Why this might be is debatable, but clearly the low
incidence of recidivism in general and the impact of other consequences
probably has a significant effect.

Bill


At 09:42 AM 5/24/1999 -0400, Ken Prescott wrote:
>
>
>Risk assessment instruments that predict sexual offense are not perfect. 
>However, there are some very good instruments out there.
>
>Hansen, R. Karl has developed the RRASOR.   A summary of the research is 
>available at the link below and also is attached.  You may also download 
>the RRASOR at the sgc website.
>
> http://www.sgc.gc.ca/home/reportsdoc/corrections/e199779.doc
>
>The Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (www.atsa.com) has a 
>number of members who are working on the issue of risk predicition.  Anyone 
>interested in adding knowledge of sex offenders to the child maltreatment 
>field should explore their web site.  Membership is limited, but worth 
>exploring.
>
>Ken Prescott, MSW, LCSW
> 
> - att1.htm
> - e199779.doc.url
>Attachment Converted: "c:\MyFiles\Email\att12.htm"
>
>Attachment Converted: "c:\MyFiles\Email\e199779.doc.url"
>
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William F. Northey, Jr., Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Human Devevlopment and Family Studies
School of Family and Consumer Sciences
110 Johnston Hall
Bowling Green State University
Bowling Green, OH 43403-0254
419-372-7848 (Voice)
419-372-7854 (Fax)
northey@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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