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RE: New study of foster care outcomes --comment
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>I may have overstated when I said “no
validation of this assumption” that this statistical method is equivalent
to randomization. Doyle did look to see if any case characteristics available
in the data set predicted case worker assignment, and he found they did
not. But this is just the same as taking some existing non-randomized
groups, and saying that if they are statistically equivalent at Time 1, this is
“equivalent” to randomization. We know from years of
evaluation research that there is often non-equivalence on many things that are
not measured, and these very frequently result in outcome findings that cannot
be replicated when assignment is truly randomized. What I had in mind
when I was talking about validation was some kind of independent prospective
assessment of a set of assignments within the system.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><st1:PersonName w:st="on"><font size=2 color=navy
face="Eras Light ITC"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Eras Light ITC";
color:navy'>David</span></font></st1:PersonName><font size=2 color=navy
face="Eras Light ITC"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Eras Light ITC";
color:navy'> Finkelhor<br>
Crimes against </span></font><font size=2 face="Eras Light ITC"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Eras Light ITC"'><ns0:place
w:insAuthor="David Finkelhor" w:insDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"
w:endInsAuthor="David Finkelhor" w:endInsDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"><ns0:PlaceName
w:insAuthor="David Finkelhor" w:insDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"
w:endInsAuthor="David Finkelhor" w:endInsDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"><st1:place
w:st="on"><st1:PlaceName w:st="on"><font color=navy><span style='color:navy'>Children</span></font></st1:PlaceName></ns0:PlaceName></st1:place><font
color=navy><span style='color:navy'> </span></font><ns0:PlaceName
w:insAuthor="David Finkelhor" w:insDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"
w:endInsAuthor="David Finkelhor" w:endInsDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"><st1:PlaceName
w:st="on"><font color=navy><span style='color:navy'>Research</span></font></st1:PlaceName></ns0:PlaceName><font
color=navy><span style='color:navy'> </span></font><ns0:PlaceType
w:insAuthor="David Finkelhor" w:insDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"
w:endInsAuthor="David Finkelhor" w:endInsDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"><st1:PlaceType
w:st="on"><font color=navy><span style='color:navy'>Center</span></font></st1:PlaceType></ns0:PlaceType></ns0:place><font
color=navy><span style='color:navy'><br>
Family Research Laboratory<br>
Department of Sociology, </span></font><ns0:place w:insAuthor="David Finkelhor"
w:insDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z" w:endInsAuthor="David Finkelhor"
w:endInsDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"><ns0:PlaceType w:insAuthor="David Finkelhor"
w:insDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z" w:endInsAuthor="David Finkelhor"
w:endInsDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"><font color=navy><span style='color:navy'>University</span></font></ns0:PlaceType><font
color=navy><span style='color:navy'> of </span></font><ns0:PlaceName
w:insAuthor="David Finkelhor" w:insDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"
w:endInsAuthor="David Finkelhor" w:endInsDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"><font
color=navy><span style='color:navy'>New Hampshire</span></font></ns0:PlaceName></ns0:place><font
color=navy><span style='color:navy'><br>
</span></font><ns0:place w:insAuthor="David Finkelhor"
w:insDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z" w:endInsAuthor="David Finkelhor"
w:endInsDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"><ns0:PlaceName w:insAuthor="David Finkelhor"
w:insDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z" w:endInsAuthor="David Finkelhor"
w:endInsDate="2007-07-16T13:18:00Z"><font color=navy><span style='color:navy'>Durham,
NH 03824</span></font></ns0:PlaceName></ns0:place><font color=navy><span
style='color:navy'><br>
Tel 603 862-2761* Fax 603 862-1122<br>
email: <a href="mailto:david.finkelhor@unh.edu";>david.finkelhor@unh.edu</a><br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face="Eras Light ITC"><span
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style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><font
size=2 color=navy face="Courier New"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
"Courier New";color:navy'><a href="http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/";><font
face="Eras Light ITC"><span style='font-family:"Eras Light ITC"'>http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/</span></font></a><br>
<a href="http://www.unh.edu/frl/";><font face="Eras Light ITC"><span
style='font-family:"Eras Light ITC"'>http://www.unh.edu/frl/</span></font></a></span></font><font
color=navy><span style='color:navy'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><font
size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
color:navy'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Plan to attend the International Research
Conference on Family Violence and Child Victimization in Portsmouth,
NH. Dates: July 8-10, 2007.</span></font><font color=navy><span
style='color:navy'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>To submit an abstract or for more
information:</span></font><font color=navy><span style='color:navy'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=purple face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:purple'><a
href="http://www.unh.edu/frl/conferences/2007/";>http://www.unh.edu/frl/conferences/2007/</a></span></font><font
color=navy><span style='color:navy'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=navy face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:navy'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'> bounce-1603697-6832158@list.cornell.edu
[mailto:bounce-1603697-6832158@list.cornell.edu] <b><span style='font-weight:
bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Kuehn, Daniel<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Monday, July 16, 2007 11:02
AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> Child Maltreatment Researchers
<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b> Lucy Berliner;
KOLKO@vms.cis.pitt.edu<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE: New study of foster
care outcomes --comment</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>David: On your first point - while the
assumption of randomization is necessary for the author's method, I don't think
its correct to say that he "expects us to take his word that he has
thought of these possible influences and accounted for them." He
does not expect us to take his word on anything - he explicitly lists possible
violations of true randomization, and he also specifically mentions that
he excludes cases where sexual abuse or Spanish language problems are
involved precisely because these are the cases which are not randomized.
Using an instrument is always risky, but there are clear steps taken in this
paper to ensure that random assignment is truly random. Granted, there
will probably be some unaccounted for violations of the random assignment
of investigators, but the point is that this is still a vast improvement
on the creation of ad hoc "comparison groups" that aren't really
comparable at all. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>I would also refer readers to Tables 2
and 3, and the discussion on pages 21-24. Far from David's assessment
that "no validation of this assumption is given", the author goes
to great lengths to demonstrate that investigator assignment is
random. I'm sure the author would welcome discussion on unobserved
characteristics correlated with assignment of investigators, but all observed
data - as well as background research on the Illinois child protective system -
seems to suggest that investigators are randomly assigned in the sample
used in this analysis. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>As for the concern about the
"marginal cases" - I agree, the paper would benefit from
describing these cases in more detail. But remember, no single
observation in the sample can be identified as a "marginal case"
because each child is investigated by only one worker. The marginal
cases are theoretical cases where two investigators would have
disagreed. This margin is defined by the difference in the
underlying propensity of an investigator to remove a child (which is calculated
from a series of cases), so the range of this margin should not be
dominated by unique characteristics of certain children. It is
a theoretical concept and we can't attach the concept to specific
observations in the sample, but the derivation of this margin from the
underlying propensities of investigators should free it from any bias resulting
from what you describe as "something very specific".<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></font><font
size=1 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'> <br>
</span></font><font size=2 color=black><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:black'>Daniel P. Kuehn</span></font><font size=1 color=black face=Arial><span
style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <br>
</span></font><font size=2 color=black><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:black'>Research Assistant</span></font><font size=1 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <br>
</span></font><font size=2 color=black><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:black'>Center on Labor, Human Services, and Population</span></font><font
size=1 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'> <br>
</span></font><font size=2 color=black><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:black'>The Urban Institute</span></font><font size=1 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <br>
</span></font><font size=2 color=black><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:black'>Office: 202-261-5394</span></font><font size=1 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <br>
</span></font><font size=2 color=black><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
color:black'>Email: DKuehn@ui.urban.org</span></font><font size=1 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:7.5pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'>
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</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><b><font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2 color=black face=Tahoma><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'> bounce-1603077-6840348@list.cornell.edu
[mailto:bounce-1603077-6840348@list.cornell.edu] <b><span style='font-weight:
bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Finkelhor, David<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Sunday, July 15, 2007 8:58
AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> Child Maltreatment Researchers
<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Cc:</span></b> Lucy Berliner;
KOLKO@vms.cis.pitt.edu<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> RE: New study of foster
care outcomes --comment</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>I have serious concerns about this study
for several reasons. 1) Its findings are completely based on an assumption
that rotational assignment of cases to caseworkers is the equivalent of a
randomization procedure. No validation of this assumption is given. We all know
that there is a crucial need for true randomization in outcome
assessment because there are so many possible selection influences most
of which we are unable to detect or predict. The author expects us to take his
word that he has thought of these possible influences and accounted for them.
2) Any unaccounted for biases in foster care outcome research are almost
certainly in the direction of worse outcomes for those in placement, because
those being placed typically have more severe histories and problems. This
study could easily be capitalizing on this. 3) Even if the study is correct,
the conclusions only pertain to what the author calls "marginal
cases" (those where the decision could go either way), but he has no way
of specifying just what characteristics these cases have or how many
there are or what portion of the caseload they represent. In fact, the
disagreement among workers decisions may be about something very specific, not
just all cases with some doubt. Urging caseworkers to err on the side of no
placement in a general way may not produce better outcomes at all.
Meanwhile, the study is likely to be interpreted as an argument against foster
placement in general, which is what the USA Today article implied, and that is
a mis-statement of the conclusions.</span></font><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:
12.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:blue'>I hope others on the listserv (more
knowledgeable than me) will chime in with comments.</span></font><font size=2
color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black'>David Finkelhor* Crimes against Children Research
Center* Family<br>
Research Laboratory* Department of Sociology* University of New<br>
Hampshire* Durham, NH 03824* Tel 603 862-2761* Fax 603 862-1122* email:
david.finkelhor@unh.edu<br>
<br>
<a href="http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/"; target="_blank">http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/</a><br>
<a href="http://www.unh.edu/frl/"; target="_blank">http://www.unh.edu/frl/</a><br>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><b><font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2 color=black face=Tahoma><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>
bounce-1586498-6832158@list.cornell.edu
[mailto:bounce-1586498-6832158@list.cornell.edu] <b><span style='font-weight:
bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>NCCPR@aol.com<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Monday, July 09, 2007 8:53
AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b>
child-maltreatment-research-l@list.cornell.edu<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> New study of foster care
outcomes</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial id="role_document"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>By now, many of you may
have seen a <i><span style='font-style:italic'>USA Today</span></i> story on
a study comparing outcomes for children placed in foster care to
comparably maltreated children left in their own homes. For those who
have not, the story is available here: <a
href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-07-02-foster-study_N.htm?csp=34#Close";
title="http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-07-02-foster-study_N.htm?csp=34#Close";><font
color=black><span style='color:windowtext'>http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-07-02-foster-study_N.htm?csp=34#Close</span></font></a>
and the full study can be found here: <a
href="http://www.mit.edu/~jjdoyle/doyle_fosterlt_march07_aer.pdf";
title="http://www.mit.edu/~jjdoyle/doyle_fosterlt_march07_aer.pdf";><font
color=black><span style='color:windowtext'>http://www.mit.edu/~jjdoyle/doyle_fosterlt_march07_aer.pdf</span></font></a>
</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>A University of Minnesota study used a
different methodology and measured different outcomes, but came to similar
conclusions. (Byron Egeland, et. al., “The impact of foster care on
development” </span></font><span class=f161><i><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-style:italic'>Development and Psychopathology</span></font></i></span><span
class=f161><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black'>, (Vol. 18, 2006, pp. 57–76)). As
far as I know, that study is not available online.</span></font></span><font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 color=black face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Richard Wexler<br>
Executive Director<br>
National Coalition for Child Protection Reform<br>
53 Skyhill Road (Suite 202)<br>
Alexandria VA 22314<br>
(703) 212-2006<br>
<a href="http://www.nccpr.org/"; title="http://www.nccpr.org/";>www.nccpr.org</a></span></font><font
size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
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face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'><br>
<br>
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size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;
color:black'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center>
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<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-top:7.5pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>See
what's free at <a href="http://www.aol.com?ncid=AOLAOF00020000000503";
target="_blank" title="http://www.aol.com?ncid=AOLAOF00020000000503";>AOL.com</a>.
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