Research regarding recidivism rates of sexually maladaptive youth

["Chaffin, Mark J. \(HSC\)" <Mark-Chaffin@xxxxxxxxx>]

I was a little puzzled at some of the findings reported in the post below, given that several points are at odds with what I am accustomed to seeing in the research.  I downloaded and read over the linked summary ( <http://www.community.nsw.gov.au/documents/> http://www.community.nsw.gov.au/documents/ <http://www.community.nsw.gov.au/documents/adolescents_literature_review.pdf> adolescents_literature_review.pdf) which by the way I would recommend highly to anyone interested in the topic.  It is an excellent work.  Just a couple of comments.  First, the review concludes that the current research is "equivocal," not "unequivocal" regarding intervention effectiveness, which I suspect was simply a typographic issue.  I would agree that there are simply too few well controlled studies, aside from MST, on which to draw a conclusion.  I am not pessimistic in this regard.  I do think the findings are trending in a positive direction (as did the review), but there is simply not the kind of data available that would allow for a firm scientific conclusion at this point.  I will add that I think we do have much firmer data on treatment efficacy for pre-adolescents with sexual behavior problems (multiple randomized trials), and that the MST findings do lend a certain optimism that at least one approach, and possibly others, can be effective.  So, I think there is some science to support optimism for teenagers.
 
Second, I was unable to locate, either in the linked review or the NSW study which was referenced, a conclusion that most adolescent sex offenders have multiple victims. In fact, the total number of known victims reported in the NSW study was only slightly larger than the total number of adolescent offenders.  Third, I think it is important to note that the rate of sexual recidivism (25%) during adolescence reported in the NSW study is something of an outlier among adolescent sex offender recidivism studies.  Most recidivism studies capture both adolescent and adult events, and have much lower combined rates which are more consistent with the adult rate (9%) reported in the NSW study.  I don't doubt the methodology of the NSW study (although I think it might be fascinating to look into why adolescent recidivism rates in this one study were so much higher than in others).  I do think we might better judge the risk these youth pose during adolescence by examining data across studies, rather than picking a single study with a high rate.  In fact, the review linked above did not come to the conclusion that adolescent sexual offenders pose a high risk for sexual reoffense, but rather the review went to some length to debunk this along with many other questionable yet widely held assumptons about these youth as mini predators or compulsive pedophiles.  I wanted to offer these observations given that, in the US at least, advocates are quite eager to grab ahold of statements about high recidivism risk or multiple victims, along with innuendo about  vastly higher hidden offense rates which can fuel an atmosphere of moral panic and hysteria leading to frankly draconian measures and public policies which are not really merited by a careful examination of the existing science.  
 
Mark Chaffin   
 
 
Hi John,

Cameron Boyd, a researcher with the Australian Centre for the Study 
of Sexual Assault has provided the following response to your questions.

"Generally the research seems to suggest a recidivism rate of about 
9% for adolescents when they become adults, but much higher (about 
25%) when they are still young. (these figures are cited in the NSW 
DOCS reference linked below). Of course, this only counts a) 
offenders who are detected and b) further offences which are 
detected. So I would think it's reasonable to assume the actual rate 
is higher. It is also important to note that most offenders 
(regardless of age) have committed multiple offences and have 
multiple victims before being detected. Whether treatment has any 
effect on recidivism actually seems to be debatable- to quote again 
from the NSW DOCS reference P18 The authors note that "Overall, the 
results of meta-analytic reviews remain unequivocal", regarding the 
effectiveness of treatment at reducing recidivism.


This would be a useful source for all three questions

http://www.community.nsw.gov.au/documents/ <https://webmail.ouhsc.edu/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.community.nsw.gov.au/documents/> 
adolescents_literature_review.pdf


also the online bibliographies:

http://www.aifs.gov.au/acssa/research/youngoffenders.html <https://webmail.ouhsc.edu/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.aifs.gov.au/acssa/research/youngoffenders.html> 
http://www.aifs.gov.au/acssa/research/offchar.html <https://webmail.ouhsc.edu/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.aifs.gov.au/acssa/research/offchar.html> 
http://www.aifs.gov.au/acssa/research/offjustreat.html <https://webmail.ouhsc.edu/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.aifs.gov.au/acssa/research/offjustreat.html> 

ACSSA Wrap 3 (Young people who sexually abuse) is fairly general but 
might have some references worth looking at
http://www.aifs.gov.au/acssa/pubs/wrap/w3.html <https://webmail.ouhsc.edu/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.aifs.gov.au/acssa/pubs/wrap/w3.html> 



You are welcome to contact Cameron on cameron.boyd@aifs.gov.au or to 
visit the ACSSA website at http://www.aifs.gov.au/acssa/ <https://webmail.ouhsc.edu/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://www.aifs.gov.au/acssa/> 


regards, Mel

Dr. Mel Irenyi
Research Officer
National Child Protection Clearinghouse
Australian Institute of Family Studies




On Jul 12, 2007, at 11:13 AM, John Polstra wrote:

> I have a couple of questions for the listserv.  I am currently 
> working with a number of young men referred to our agency who have 
> engaged in molesting young victims-both family and non-family.  I 
> am curious to know what research is available regarding the 
> following issues:
>
> 1.       What is the recidivism rate for sexually maladaptive youth 
> who successfully complete treatment designed to address their 
> sexually acting out behavior?  What factors are most relevant to 
> address in lowering that rate?
>
> 2.      Is there comparative research documenting the recidivism 
> rate of youth who do not complete sex offender treatment?  For 
> example, what would the rate be for kids who are simply 
> incarcerated and not treated compared to a treatment group?  Or 
> what is the recidivism rate of kids who participate in some form of 
> generic residential or outpatient treatment as opposed to treatment 
> specifically for sexually maladaptive youth?
>
> 3.      Finally, I understand that there is literature indicating 
> that treatment for sexually maladaptive youth loses its 
> effectiveness after a certain length of time in treatment.  I've 
> even heard that it becomes counterproductive at some point.  Is 
> this true and could someone provide me with the citations to such 
> literature?
>
> Thank you for whatever feedback you can provide to me!
>
>
>
> John Polstra
>




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