RE: Perpetrator Recidivism

["Chaffin, Mark J. \(HSC\)" <Mark-Chaffin@xxxxxxxxx>]

I'm assuming you are talking about parental neglect and physical abuse
recidivism.  Sexual abuse is a different thing--for that there are
established sex offender actuarials.  

The BIG predictor for neglect/physical abuse recurrence is number of
past referrals, substantiated or not.  Most families with only a single
or a couple of referrals don't return to child welfare.  By the time a
family has collected more than a couple of referrals or so, the odds get
better than 50/50 that they will return and the time to re-referral
becomes shorter with each new referral.  See Diana English and David
Marshall's studies on this.  Other predictors (depending on the study)
might include--having a very young child in the home, poverty/low
education, having some sort of neglect case, and having a drug/alcohol
disorder.  If a parent has, say, 4 past referrals, an infant, and a drug
problem, there easily can be a greater than 80% chance that they will be
re-reported within a few years.  Because of state-to-state variations in
how many of the relevant variables are measured, CT might want to
examine its own data and predictors.  

However, it is important to note that recurrences are a very mixed bag.
In some cases, what CPS is dealing with is a chronic but relatively
low-grade problematic situation (e.g., poor family with very low
resources and marginal parenting, but still sustainable with some
periodic or ongoing help and support), whereas in other cases it
represents a serious situation (e.g., escalating violence and/or neglect
to the point that no children should be in that home).  Policy makes
might want to make some more fine-grained distinctions when thinking
about "maltreatment."  

MC  

Mark Chaffin, Ph.D.
Professor of Pediatrics
University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center
P.O. Box 26901; CSC 225
Oklahoma City, OK  73190
(405) 271-8858

> -----Original Message-----
> From: NORTH, FRED [mailto:FRED.NORTH@po.state.ct.us]
> Sent: Wednesday, September 07, 2005 2:43 PM
> To: Child Maltreatment Researchers
> Subject: Perpetrator Recidivism
> 
> What risk (and/or protective) factors have been shown to impact
> perpetrator
> recidivism in child maltreatment?  I imagine that these may vary
depending
> on a number of client (eg. demographics, disabilities, substance
abuser,
> domestic violence involvement), service (eg. length of involvement in
> treatment services, agreement/refusal of services) or administrative
(eg.
> type of maltreatment previously substantiated, removal of children)
> factors,
> so are particular combinations of factors more highly correlated with
> recidivism than others?
> 
> Our legislature here in CT recently enacted a modification to our
statutes
> requiring that for the state to place an alleged perpetrator on our
> central
> registry, we must be able to show that they pose a risk to the health,
> safety or well-being of children (see Public Act 05-207, Section 2b at
> http://www.cga.ct.gov/2005/act/Pa/2005PA-00207-R00HB-05057-PA.htm).
So,
> we'd like to establish a solid base of research knowledge with which
to
> inform new policy regarding decisions for placing perpetrators on our
> central registry or not.
> 
> Feel free to reply on/offline!  Thanks in advance for your help!!
> 
> Fred North, Social Work Supervisor
> Department of Children and Families
> Office of Results Management
> 505 Hudson Street
> Hartford, CT  06106
> Phone:  (860) 723-7219
> Email:  fred.north@po.state.ct.us
> This information may be confidential and/or privileged.  If you
received
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