Re: re unrelated males in household

[aron shlonsky <shlonsky@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Dear Linda,

There are actually 2 excellent questions here - both of which deserve 
serious attention.

First, in cases of child death, how often is the perpetrator an unrelated 
male?  The answer seems to be "quite often."

Second, how often do unrelated males cause child death?  The answer is 
"almost never."

If you investigate a home and find an unrelated male living in the home, 
you might ask, "What are the chances that this unrelated male will kill the 
child?"  Without any further information (like whether the unrelated male 
has a history of child murder), the answer is "almost never."

Such is the conundrum of trying to predict low base rate phenomena.

At 11:04 AM 6/19/2002 -0400, you wrote:

>My question, as a CPS worker, not researcher, is how often, if ever, is that
>unrelated adult male in the household the perpetrator of the maltreatment
>that leads to the child's death?  Anecdotal evidence would lead us to
>believe that such unrelated males, especially if they are under 25yoa, are
>prime suspects in such deaths.  Does this study discuss this at all?
>
>
>
>
>
>Linda Pfonner
>
>Child Protection Worker
>478 Main Street, Suite 321
>Buffalo NY  14202-4103
>716-858-8802
>14D691@dfa.state.ny.us

Aron Shlonsky, MSW, MPH
Research Associate
UC Berkeley
School of Social Welfare
Center for Social Services Research
16 Haviland Hall, #7400
Berkeley, CA  94720-7400
(510) 642-8139
shlonsky@uclink4.berkeley.edu