Re: Statistics on verification of allegations of child sexualabuse

[Michael Lamb <lambm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

>List,
>
>I have a question concerning "substantiated", "unsubstantiated", 
>"confirmed" and "unconfirmed" cases of child sexual abuse. I have 
>had the impression that we do not have a clear view of just how many 
>allegations are "false" and have seen estimates of 10-65%. Can 
>anyone help here?
>
>                     Jim Stark, Ph.D.--Atlanta
>
>

you're right that we don't have a clear understanding of this.  in 
part, that's because the two key constructs are defined in many 
different ways.

the first problematic term is 'allegation'.  ceci's estimates of the 
number of false allegations includes allegations or suspicions voiced 
by adults in various roles, whereas my own work on 'false 
allegations' only included cases in which the alleged victim made an 
allegation him or herself.  those are pretty rare.  most would agree 
that the majority of 'false allegations' are made not by children but 
by others.

the second problematic term is 'false.'    it is extremely difficult 
to prove an allegation false.  obviously, the number of false cases 
you find will vary depending on whether you settle for the 
investigators' hunch or demand proof.  the majority of 'false' cases 
are probably cases that can't be substantiated--they are not 
demonstrably false.

unfortunately, the vast majority of allegations--whether by kids or 
others--can't be independently verified. strictly, they can't be 
classified as either true or false.  the terms 'confirmed', 
unconfirmed', 'substantiated,' and 'unsubstantiated' are also used 
very loosely, often for administrative purposes.   they certainly 
should not be confused with 'true' or 'false' designations.

michael lamb

Michael E. Lamb PhD
Head, Section on Social and Emotional Development
National Institute of Child Health and Human Development
9190 Rockville Pike
Bethesda MD 20892  USA

Phone:  301-496-0420
Fax:    301-480-5775
E-mail: Michael_Lamb@nih.gov