Dr. Finkelhor,
I have to wonder how we should address the point this member poster brought up:
Quote:
Dear members,
The thought occurred to me as I was following the discussion about the
trends in this report that the data reported is from 2008 and the
economic downturn started in the fall of 2008 and became more severe
and prolonged in 2009 with little recovery in 2010. Perhaps the
expected increase in reported maltreatment will come in the next
years' reports. As a family's situation becomes more desperate-no new
job, limited funds consumed, house in foreclosure, etc., the strain
within the family increasing with a greater chance of
abuse/maltreatment. Just a thought.
Phyllis K. Marion, DNSc, CPNP
pkm15@xxxxxxxxxxxxEnd Quote
I believe the claim above covers both the fact that we were still in
an economic boom, though it was fading, and families really couldn't
have started feeling the effects personally that would have impacted
the incidences of CAN, if I understood Dr. Marion correctly.
If this is true then families would not be in those dire straights
until at least the end of 2009.
Not only would the data be from 2008 but the fiscal reporting year
would end on July 1, usually.
I will be very interested in seeing the data from 2008-2009 when it
has been published.
I will also add the same thing I've said in a couple of posts
previously - that we really have no excuse for not both post logging
and calculating past years and keeping them available for researchers,
both social and political, and we could certainly have access now to
data even as it is reported and pre-hard copy publishing.
I understand any researcher's reluctance to have raw figures available
publically but given the capacity in these times of advance
spreadsheet database technology for analysis we could actually have a
running output limited only by the speed with which we can input the
raw numbers.
We are still about a year and a half behind the submission of data
reports from the field and when we publish. This has been so for two
decades to my knowledge and likely much longer.
Poha Kane
On 8/31/10, Finkelhor, David <David.Finkelhor@xxxxxxx> wrote:
A number of the posts in response to this thread about declines in child
maltreatment substantiations have offered explanations that have to do with
changed CPS standards or procedures or constrained resources or staffing or
new professional reticence.
While such explanations may explain some portion of the decline, they do not
account well for some of the evidence from various studies that we have
about the period from 1993 through 2005-6.
The NIS study which found substantial declines in cases of maltreatment that
were known to professionals in the community, whether or not they passed
them on to CPS
The several youth self-report surveys that show declines in sexual abuse and
physical assault that the youth themselves say they have experienced.
The fact that the largest declines in CPS substantiations have been for
sexual abuse, a form of abuse which is generally taken more seriously.
Changes in standards, resource constraints and willingness to report would
be likely to most affect the less serious and more ambiguous forms of
maltreatment like neglect, which in fact has declined the least.
Two studies, one that we did, and one conducted by folks at the Harvard
School of Public Health, looked at state CPS data for indications that
resource constraints or changed standards were affecting the rates and were
unable to find such evidence.
The possibility that there are administrative changes that may affect the
NCANDS numbers is important to investigate, but as a full explanation for
the decline, it is not doing a good job of accounting for the accumulating
evidence.
David Finkelhor
Crimes against Children Research Center
Family Research Laboratory
Department of Sociology, University of New Hampshire
Durham, NH 03824
Tel 603 862-2761* Fax 603 862-1122
email: david.finkelhor@xxxxxxx
My new book has been released. Click on it for more details and to order.
http://www.unh.edu/ccrc/
http://www.unh.edu/frl/
-----Original Message-----
From: bounce-6222013-6832158@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:bounce-6222013-6832158@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Larry
Breitenstein
Sent: 2010-08-27 15:45
To: Child Maltreatment Researchers
Subject: Re: New bulletin: Updated Trends in Child Maltreatment, 2008
In research I have yet to publish, I compared Pennsylvania counties
operating under a Medicaid managed care model to similar sized counties
outside of the Medicaid managed care model and found a significant decline
in some types of reported abuse (bruises and contusions) and indicated
findings of abuse.
My thought was since managed care (and health care policy) is directing kids
away from hospitals (changing the front door for who sees the child first),
those treating the kids (and those kids not receiving medical treatment) are
being excluded from what in the past would have been reported. Pennsylvania
law requires a medical finding to substantiate most reports. Thus these
systemic changes could be making it too hard for CPW to get all that is
needed to substantiate a finding of abuse. These changes with health care
could be indirectly forcing CPS workers to focus more on the most serious
cases and/or preventing them from using what is available.
My findings suggested managed care had no affect on serious injuries like
fractures.
