Re: Decline in Quebec incidence rate of CSA - Search for -Reply

[Michael Ryan <MichaeR2@xxxxxxxxxx>]

** Confidential **

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David Finkelhor wrote:

> Andrea Sedlak's findings from the NIS comparison are very important, but
> they concern the period from 1986 to 1993, when reports and
> substantiations of sexual abuse were still both rising in the US and
> probably in Quebec as well.  The decline that we are all trying to account
> for is a phenomenon that appears to have begun in around 1992-93 and
has
> accelerated since. It appears to involve large declines in both reports
> and substantiations.

If I may be allowed a guess, I would consider that the economic context
might be important here.  We have seen studies showing that physical
abuse
rates (in Colorado) are *very* closely tied to unemployment rates.  My own
research, and the NIS work, shows that even sexual abuse is strongly tied
to poverty (although I understand that some excellent researchers still
doubt this to be the case).  Perhaps the good economy which has
obtained
in the past several years is causing a decrease in the high maltreatment
rates which were found in the late 1980's.  This hypothesis becomes more
attractive when we recall that the period covered by the NIS-3 was a bad
period economically, with the economic upturn only really getting underway
right at the end of the period covered by the NIS-3.

Brett Drake Ph.D.
Associate Professor
George Warren Brown School of Social Work
Washington University




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This association between economic downturn and increased rate of
notification of Child abuse has been seen in Australia.

Dr Michael G. Ryan
The Child Protection Unit
The New Children's Hospital
E-mail: MichaeR2@nch.edu.au
Snail mail: P.O Box 3515
                 Parramatta NSW 2124
                 Australia
Tel: +61 (02) 9845 2493
Fax: +61 (02) 9845 2495